Nexus

Bitcoin has been on an ever-successful bull run, spurred by institutional adoption. Yet good times do not last forever, leaving speculation rife on whether the run is over or still getting started.

The current bull run is set to be the second-largest on record. Despite having no definitive start or end date, they tend to be defined by a 20% rise and end when a 20% decline is reached after a peak. If the past peak was $122,000, then it indicates the run is far from over.

Signs We May Have More To Come

So far, the run has been going on for 952 days. It began in November 2022 when its price was $15,504. The bitcoin price live is currently hovering around the $118,626 level, where it has sat for some time. After reaching a level over $122,000 on July 14th, it has done little to threaten a return. It seems not if it will now cap this high by the end of the month, but more if it will finish above the $120,000 mark before July is out.

Previous bull runs have not lasted this long. The one in 2011 carried on for around 750 days and began to end when around 600x were made in gains, which is about the average figure the current run is at now. Other runs have lasted longer, but with fewer gains. In 2018, it ran for 1060 days, providing 22x gains.

Thus, runs are getting longer and providing fewer gains each time. This is standard economic theory, which states that each time they happen, they provide diminishing returns. Thus, there may be a few months left before this one ends.

Is a Short Squeeze Coming?

A short squeeze is a timeframe in which conditions become difficult for investors. This is generally due to market pressure when rapid price movements occur. There are some predicting that this is on the way for Bitcoin after a relatively sedate week.

It is measured using the Squeeze Momentum Indicator. This shows bitcoin entering a phase known as price compression, where movements are held to a very narrow range. This means low volatility, and can sometimes be followed by a breakout. However, this will only happen if it manages to smash the $120,000 psychological barrier, which seems unlikely.

On the other side, it seems that $115,000 is the lower figure to watch. Anything beyond this could lead to quick sell-offs and a rapid decline.

Are We in Altcoin Season?

Another indicator to watch is the arrival of altcoin season. This is when 75% of the top coins outperform Bitcoin over a period of 90 days. It is generally spurred on when Bitcoin begins to stagnate, and investors look for other coins to make their gains on. So far, the percentage is at 33% which is a long way off. However, this is a movement from 26 the week before, showing a quick shift which could turn very quickly.

The last altcoin season came in 2021. In this, the top 100 coins made 130% more than Bitcoin. Coins that had the largest cap made up 174% of this. Prices move fast and frequently, so people must be aware of what is going on.

Current movements are also looking positive for the altcoin season. Ethereum is up 20% and has passed the $3,600 marker, making its gains 34% this month. Further gains were had by XRP, which has passed the $3.6 marker, before a small correction and further increases.

Bitcoin dominance is also diminishing. This is a measure of how much market cap Bitcoin holds in comparison to the total cryptocurrency market. At the time of writing, the day’s opening figure was at 61.86.  

If there were any questions about altcoin season being on its way, then you only need to look at Pudgy Penguins. This memecoin, a token that has no value other than how in demand it is, has rallied 60% and gone up by 218% this month. Its market value is now $1.95 billion, and if there was ever any doubt about how quickly these can rise, then DOGE should be looked at as a case study.

Thus, it seems we are nearing the end of the bull run, though by no means does that signify it is fully over. Data suggests it may have a few months left, and in this time, new highs and profits are possible, though in lesser amounts than before. Because of this, many investors are turning to other methods of making money, which is fuelling the growth of altcoins.

For investors, there is a choice. Stick with Bitcoin and what may possibly be left of a bull run, or profit take now. Many will then choose to chase altcoins. Remember that nothing is certain. Cryptocurrency is still a new concept itself. All historical data remains fairly new and carries with it risk wrapped in possible reward.